며칠 전 한 수도권 광역자치단체 주택정책 자문회의 다녀왔습니다. 저를 포함한 국내 전문가 5명, 일본 노무라증권연구소 서울지점 고문이 통역자 대동해 참석. 국내 전문가들은 주택시장 상황 우려하면서도 아직 상황 잘 모르는 분위기. 하지만 일본 전문가의 발언이 인상적이었습니다. 여러 국내 전문가라는 사람들이 버블을 부인하지만, 일본 전문가의 눈에는 명확하게 버블로 보이고, 지금 주택시장 현상이 버블 붕괴 현상으로 보이는 것 같습니다. 물론 국내 전문가라는 분 중에는 일본 전문가의 주장을 반박하듯 ‘버블은 꺼지기 전에는 버블인지 알 수 없다’는 주장을 펴시는 분이 있더군요. 그렇다면, 버블과 버블 붕괴의 충격을 관리해야 하는 정부의 역할을 완전히 부인하는 것인데, 왜 그 회의석상에는 나온 것인지 저로서는 요령부득. 어쨌거나 일본 전문가의 주장은 제 생각과 상당히 비슷한 부분이 많아 제 주장으로 오해하실 분들 있을지 모르겠지만, 공적인 회의석상에서 나온 발언을 제 마음대로 옮길 리는 없겠지요^^ 아래에서그 전문가의 발언 중 주요 내용을 옮겨보겠습니다. 괄호안은 제가 이해를 돕기 위해 보충 또는 부연설명한 내용입니다.
-일본 부동산은 상업지에서 주택지로, 지역별로는 도쿄도심→도쿄권→대도시권→지방권으로 서서히 파급. 이러한 현상이 진정되기까지 오랜 시간 소요. 도쿄도심은 1988년부터 급등세 멈추며 보합세로 전환
-도쿄권 지가는 90년 가을부터 붕괴하기 시작. 토지 불패신화 깨지고, 토지도 상승과 하락이 존재하는 리스크 자산으로 변화. 부동산 버블기 때 공사비가 40% 정도 상승했는데, 이후 버블이 해소되면서 공사비도 하락.
-내가 볼 때 한국 주택시장 버블이다. PIR(소득대비 주택가격)만 따져봐도 한국 주택가격 높다. 일본의 경우 버블 당시 PIR이 4.8~6.5배였는데, 한국의 PIR도 6배가 넘는다. (서울, 수도권만 따지면 훨씬 더 높음)비정상적 주택가격은 어느 단계, 어떤 시점에서든 무너져 적정가격으로 하락하게 돼 있다. 지금 수도권에서 거래량이 줄고, 가격이 하락하는 현상이 바로 그런 흐름으로 보인다. 남아 있는 문제는 폭락하느냐, 비교적 서서히 하락하느냐의 문제만 남아 있는 것 같다. 지금처럼 주택 가격 하락 기대감이 커져 수요가 더욱 위축되면 급속한 하락 가능성도 배제할 수 없다.
-과도했던 주택가격이 정상으로 돌아가는 것은 결코 잘못된 것이 아니고, 이를 정책적으로 막으려 해서도 안 된다. 주택 가격을 높은 상태로 유지한 상태에서 일반 가계들이 주택을 계속 취득하도록 하는 정책에 매달리는 것이 오히려 잘못.
-일본과 한국의 부동산 버블의 양상이나 주택시장 상황이 다르기 때문에 일률적으로 판단하기는 어렵다. 하지만 한국 건설업체들이 고가분양한 아파트를 미분양인 채로 안고 있는 것은 큰 문제다. 건설업계의 모럴헤저드와 관계가 깊다. 일본의 경우 한국처럼 건설업계 모럴해저드를 불러일으키는 미분양 해소책 같은 것은 전혀 실시하지 않았다.
-중요한 것은 하락의 문제에서 따르는 고통에 어떻게 대처할 것이냐인데, 이를 위해서 새로운 주택 정책 방향을 정립해야 한다. 공공임대주택의 역할과 비중이 한국에서는 많이 낮은데 이를 많이 늘려야 할 것이다. 주택 보유와 임대의 적절한 균형을 유지할 수 있도록 주택재고를 관리하는 것이 중요하다. (한국의 경우 임대주택 재고비율이 4%에 불과해 너무 주택 보유에 편중돼 있음) 일본의 경우 부동산 버블 붕괴 후 공공에서는 분양주택은 전혀 짓지 않았고, 공공임대주택 법제를 정비해 공공임대 주택 공급 늘렸다. 특히 저소득 일인가구(단신생활자) 등 소규모 세대 증가에 대응하는 임대공급 크게 늘렸다.
-1인가구 증가하니 무턱대고 계속 (분양)주택 공급을 늘려야 한다는 식의 주장이 나오는데, 너무 단순한 접근이다. 일본에서도 부동산 버블기에는 주택공급 주장에 근거해 각종 개발계획들이 나왔다. 하지만 무작정 (분양)주택을 공급하면 된다는 식보다는, 세밀한 수요에 대응한 세밀한 임대주택 공급이 필요하다. 그런 과정에서 일본에서도 뉴타운, 신도시 개발 등의 개념이 사라졌다.
트위터를 하시는 분들은 http://twitter.com/kennedian3로 저를 팔로우해주시면 감사하겠습니다. 제가 아고라와 제 블로그(다음뷰), 오마이뉴스, 네이버 부동산, 한겨레신문, 미디어오늘 등에 연재하는 글뿐만 아니라 각종 언론 인터뷰 등을 통합해서 매일 소개할 생각입니다.
모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.
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거품이 빠지면서 나타나는 혼란들을 위한 좋은 충고이군요.
좋은 글 보고 갑니다. 감사합니다.
- LH 부채가 118조나 되는데 어떻게 임대주택을 많이 공급 할수 있을지 좀 걱정도 됩니다. 시프트든 공공임대든 결국 LH 가 돈을 마련해야 되는데 (최소 건축비라도) 그런 돈이 지금은 거의 없죠.
- 단순히 소득대비 주택가격 비율로 모든 것을 결정하는 것은 많은 오류 가능성이 있지 않을까 합니다. 토지면적당 인구비율도 있을 것이고, 교통환경이나 생활 환경에 따라 많은 차이가 있습니다. 단순 지역이나 부동산 비교는 무리일듯 하네요.
- 왜 그 지역의 그 부동산이 그런 가격이 되었는지 원인을 분석하고 향후 전망을 해야 하는게 아닌가 생각도 듭니다. 전세는 실거주 방향에서 접근하지만, 매매는 심리적인 방향에서 접근하는 경향이 워낙 많은지라..ㅎㅎ
물건 상때 필요해서 사는 물건이 있고, 있으면 좋을듯해 사는 물건이 있습니다. 그 비중은 각각 본인의 생각에 의해서고 꼭 필요하지 않은데 과도한 지출로 필요하지 않은 물건을 사면 그만큼 본인이 감당해야죠. 현재 하우스푸어와 같이~
지당하신 말씀~~~
공감입니다요~~^^
최근 예비군 훈련을 2박3일동안 다녀 왔습니다. 장교출신에다 재입영 훈련이라 부대에 가보니 저 혼자 딸랑왔더군요...너무도 할께 없어 병사들하고 3일동안 놀았습니다. 놀면서 선대인 부소장님 이야기 정말 많이 했습니다. 3개 중대 내무실마다 돌아다니며 했으니까요.. 선대인....사랑한다면 사랑하는 사람을 지키는 법을 배워야 한다.. 선대인을 읽어라....
건Б강＃정㎪보€ 좋은 글 감사합니다.<늘! 건강하시고 행복하시기를 기원합니다.<평생건강지킴이 : 내 병은 내가 고친다.>
건㎖강정㈈보♤ 좋은 글 감사합니다.<늘! 건강하시고 행복하시기를 기원합니다.<평생건강지킴이 : 내 병은 내가 고친다.>
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물건 상때 필요해서 사는 물건이 있고, 있으면 좋을듯해 사는 물건이 있습니다. 그 비중은 각각 본인의 생각에 의해서고 꼭 필요하지 않은데 과도한 지출로 필요하지 않은 물건을 사면 그만큼 본인이 감당해야죠. 현재 하우스푸어와 같이
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