요즘 제가 시간이 여의치 않아 그냥 짧게 화두(?)를 던져볼까 합니다.
아래 그래프는 1986년 이후 서울 강남지역의 국민은행 아파트 가격지수를 물가지수를 반영해 실질화한 것입니다.
2009년 5월까지 그래프입니다만, 큰 그림을 보시는데는 별 무리 없지 않을까 합니다. 보시면 어떤 분들은 당혹스러울 것입니다. 언론에서 그렇게 집값 뛴다고 '난리 부르스'인데 이런 상황이라니. 제가 여전히 한국의 부동산 시장이 대세하락을 벗어나지 못했다고 하는 이유도 이 때문입니다.
더 이상 구체적인 제 생각을 말씀드리는 것은 일단 유보하겠습니다. 이 그래프를 보면 여러분들은 어떤 생각이 드시는지요?
참고로, 여기에서 서울 강남지역이라는 것은 강남 3구만이 아닌 한강 이남 11개 지역을 통털어 말씀드리는 것입니다. 강남 3구만으로는 이렇게 장기 시계열을 그릴 수 없어서 강남지역 전체로 대체합니다만 보시는데는 큰 무리 없을 것으로 봅니다.
제가 누누이 말씀드리지만 이번 집값 반등은 오래가지 못합니다. 이미 여러가지 지표를 통해 이번 반등기의 상승여력이 많지 않음을 확인하고 있습니다. 다시 한 번 말씀드리지만 언론의 선동보도에 휩쓸려 일희일비하지 마시기를 당부드립니다. 조만간 좀더 긴 글로 찾아뵐 수 있기를 바랍니다. 더운 여름날 모두 건강하세요.^^
(주)국민은행자료로부터 KSERI 작성
참고로, 위의 그래프는 미국 케이스-쉴러 주택가격 지수 창안자 중 한 사람인 로버트 실러 교수가 1890년 이후 미국 집값에서 인플레이션 효과를 제거해 실질화해 추이를 나타낸 아래 도표와 같은 방법을 사용했습니다. 아래 도표는 1890년부터 물가상승률 효과를 제외한 미국의 기존 주택 가격을 지수화해 나타낸 것입니다. 이를 보면 1890년 가격지수 100으로 시작된 미국의 집값은 계속 등락을 거듭하며 파동을 그리고 있음을 알 수 있습니다. 최근에는 1970년대와 1980년대에도 부동산 붐이 일었지만, 어김없이 한 때의 붐은 가라앉고 가격지수는 여전히 100~110 수준으로 늘 수렴했음을 알 수 있습니다. 물론 세계 대공황 때처럼 가격지수 100 이하에서 비교적 장기간 머문 적도 있었고, 2000년대처럼 가격지수가 유례없이 급격히 상승한 적도 있었습니다. 하지만 현재 미국 상황에서 보는 것처럼 과도한 부동산 거품은 반드시 꺼졌고, 부동산 거품의 크기만큼 붕괴의 충격 또한 컸음을 짐작할 수 있습니다. 과연 한국은 어떨까요?
정부와 언론이 왜곡하는 경제 정보를 꿰뚫어보고 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.
댓글을 달아 주세요
장단기에 대한 명확한 구분없이 그저 "일시적" 이라는 말 한마디로 자신의 논리를 정당화하는구만.. 장단기 구분은 대체 몇개월 또는 몇년? 인지 명확히 밝히시지요... 설마 한국의 인구감소가 가시화되는 2050년까지를 장기로 보시는건 아닌지요...
어처구니가 없네요.. 강남집값이 떨어져야 될건 사실이지만..
떨어지지도 않는데다가 떨어질 기미도 안보이는데요??
강남에 한번 살아보면 나가기 힘들죠.. 들어오려고만 하지..
뭐든지 빨리 들어오는데다가,시민의식 높죠,교육환경도 뛰어나죠..
글쓴이가 '신'입니까? 글을 쓰신 분의 의도가 못마땅(?)하시면 여기 오지 않으시면 그만이신데, 단어 하나하나에 토를 다시는 분은 도대체 왜그러시는지 모르겠습니다. 나중(1~2년뒤)에 글쓴이의 지적이 틀렸다면 그때가서 비판하세요. 아무개가 어느싸이트에 이러이러한 말도 안되는 글을 올렸다고 하면서 말이죠. 글쓰신 분의 주장이 틀릴 수도 있겠지만 맞을 수도 있습니다. 그러한 일련의 가능성은 여러가지 자료와 가능성을 가지고 제기되는 것입니다. 민주주의 사회의 일원답게 다원성과 다양성을 인정해주시는 자세들을 가져주세요. 그냥 비판하고 잡아먹지 못해서 안달떠시는것 같애서 보기가 안좋습니다.
차 막히지,공기 더럽지,사람 더럽게 많지,유흥가 천국이지...
강남에 한번 살아보면 나가기 힘들긴... 개뿔. ㅋㅋ
코딱지만한 아파트 한채 있으니 지들이 재벌이라도 된 줄 알지.
ㅋㅋㅋ 참 웃긴 애들 강남에 많어.
강남 집값이 떨어진다고요....? 빈부 격차가 해소 되는 건가요?.... 아닌 것 같은데요.... 지방 집값 개폭락 ....강남 집값 강세....
집가지고 이젠 그만 장난하시고 조용하고 편안한 곳 공기좋고 물맑은 강북으로 이사들오세요 얼마나 오래산다고 들 그리 아웅다웅하시는지 산세좋고 물좋은곳으로 ^^^
경제흐름이란 건 어느 순간에 확 바뀝니다. 주식에서 우량 저평가주가 개미투자자들이 상승을 기다리다 지쳐서 너도나도 손절하면 그때 갑자기 비웃듯이 올라 가는 현상처럼 최고의 전문가들 조차도 자신의 전망에 회의가 들어 우왕좌왕하게되는 그때까지 긴장 속에서 우리의 이성을 교란합니다. 경제의 고성장 단계는 끝나고 이제부터는 아주 잘된다고 해도 기껏해야 경제 안정화 단계에 들어서는 것입니다. 그러다가 어느 순간에 실수요가 아니면 누구도 부동산을 갖지 않으려하는 상태로 진입합니다. 부동산 특히 아파트는 현재 억지로 떠받치는 힘이 엄청나기에 제가 보기엔 앞으로 3-4년 정도 처분할 시간이 남아 있있는 것 같습니다. 그러나 그 이후엔 그에 대한 반작용 후유증으로 15-20년 정도에 걸쳐 지루하리만치 서서히 거품이 가차없이 붕괴할 것 같습니다. 억지로 떠받친 댓가를 치루는 것이죠. 그러므로 향후 20년간은 결코 하락시 바닥을 예단하며 빚을 떠안고 시장에 진입해선 안 됩니다.
건~~ 니생각이고...
강남은 오르든 내리든 신경 안쓰지요 ..하여간 강남이외 나머지 집값..잡을 방법 없나요 사야하는지 안사면 나중 더올라 후회할지..종 판단이 안서네요 작년 금융위기에도 폭락론 폭팔론 많았는데..맞는게 하나도 없네요 한국부동산 은 예외인가봐요
그렇다면 위의 강남 그래프도 물가상승률을 제거한 후의 그래프란 말인가요? 그렇다면 장기적으로 볼 때 집값이 물가상승률 정도는 지속적으로 상승한다는 것을 전제로 하고 계시나요?
비밀댓글입니다
이사람 정말 갑갑하네 ^^ 사러 돌아다녀봤더니 아파트 시세 장난아니더구만.. 어째 하나 장만했수 쓰잘데 없이 이런글 쓰지말고 발품팔아 하나 장만하게낰ㅋ
조중동에 세뇌대어 날뛰는 인간들 아직 많다.
그 인간들이 고꾸라질 때까지 집값은 쉽게 안 떨어질꺼다.
선동은 누가하는건지.............조중동이 왜곡이면 한겨례에서는 강남집값이 최근 폭락한다고 하나요? 저 그래프를 봐도 물가보다 장기적으로 더 올라가는데 세상 어느 자산이 물가이상의 상승을 보장합니까? 경기가 이리 안좋은데도 반등이 강하면 경기회복시에는 더 상승탄력이 강해지는거 아닌가요?
한국이 일본보다 집값이 배이상 높게 책정되었다는게 미네르바에서 말했듯이 국민일인당 GDP로 보면 알수있다고 봅니다 우리가 일본의 절반인데 집값은 더 높다 문제가 많아보이지 않으신가요?
근데 안떨어지고 있잖아.
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But the IEA, which represents the views of energy consumers, warned that the standoff http://www.shopbarbourjackets.com between Iran and the West was bringing the burden of oil prices on the global economy to near levels last seen in 2008.
Didier Houssin, http://www.officialbarbourshop.com IEA director for energy markets and security, said in an interview that "there are alternative supplies that can make up for any loss of Iranian exports," with more production made available both within and outside the Organization http://www.barbourjacketsshop.com of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the second half.
The remarks came as Ahmed Ghalebani, managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co., http://www.barbourjacketsshop.com warned European companies it would interrupt their supplies if they don't sign long-term deals, according to the oil ministry's website Shana.
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