지방선거가 막을 내렸다. 4대강 사업 등 민의를 무시하고 막무가내로 폭주하던 현 정부에 상당한 경종을 울렸다는 점에서 상당히 의미 있는 결과다. 하지만 '북풍'과 '노풍'이라는 중앙정치 차원의 세몰이가 맞부딪치면서 지자체의 재원 사용에 관한 협치구조(governance)를 만드는 지방선거의 의미는 뒷전으로 밀렸다. 이제 차분하게 지역 살림을 어떻게 꾸릴 것인지에 대해 한 번 짚어보자.
지역 살림을 잘 하려면 지방재정 상황을 알아야 한다. 우선, 전국 지자체 총세입은 순계 기준으로 2008년 144.5조원에서 지난해에는 137.5조원으로 줄었다. 이는 경기침체 여파로 세외수입이 줄어든 탓도 있지만 중앙 정부 감세정책 등의 영향으로 지방교부세가 줄어든 탓이 크다. 지방교부세는 종합부동산세 등을 바탕으로 한 부동산 교부금 증가 등으로 2008년 30.7조원까지 증가했다가 2009년에는 26.5조원까지 줄었다. 이에 따라 전체 지방 세수 가운데 자체 지방세 수입이 차지하는 비중이 점점 커지고 있다.
그런데 이 같은 지방세수는 향후 줄어들 가능성이 높다. 지자체 세수의 30% 이상을 차지하는 취등록세 수입이 부동산 대세하락 흐름이 지속되면 계속 줄어들 가능성이 높은 것이다. 이미 2003년 전체 지방세수의 39.4%를 차지하던 취등록세 비중이 2008년에는 30.9%까지 줄었다. 불과 5년 만의 변화다.
이렇게 세수가 줄다 보니 지자체 재정이 급속히 악화되며 지자체 채무도 크게 늘고 있다. 지방정부의 지방채권 발행 및 차입금 잔액을 나타내는 자치단체 채무는 2008년 19조 486억원에서 2009년에는 25조8,700억원으로 늘어났다. 정부는 올해는 이보다 15% 더 늘어난 29조9,000억원에 이를 것으로 추산하고 있다.
세수가 줄다 보니 지방채 발행을 통한 빚 끌어 쓰기도 급증하고 있는데 광역 지자체별로 지방채 발행액은 2007~2008년 연속 2.62조원이던 것이 2009년에는 4.73조원으로 급증했다. 이뿐만 아니다. 지자체가 지방 공기업을 통해 발행하는 지방공기업 채권 발행액은 2007년 이후 모두 16.17조원이다. 2007년 0.67조원이던 채권 발행액이 2008년 2.59조원, 2009년 12.39조원으로 기하급수적으로 늘고 있다.
그런데 지자체의 세입(수입) 사정이 악화되고 있더라도 각 지자체가 세출(지출)을 줄여 적재적소에 실속 있게 쓴다면 그나마 다행이다. 그런데 상황은 정반대다. 이런 상황에서도 상당수 자치단체장들이 호화청사를 지어 올리는 등 무분별한 과시형 개발사업을 벌이며 세출 구조조정은 뒷전이다.
향후 저출산 고령화의 여파로 경제 활력이 떨어지고 지방 세수도 줄어들 가능성에 대비해 사전에 주민들의 삶의 질을 끌리는데 적극 투자해야 한다. 실제로 주민들의 문화, 교육 및 복지 인프라에 대한 수요도 급증하고 있다. 그런데 상당수 지자체장들은 당장 ‘뒷돈’을 마련하려고 건설업계 유착에만 골몰하고 있다. 이미 민선4기의 많은 지자체장들이 각종 뇌물 수수 등 비리에 휘말려 검찰 수사를 받거나 유죄 판결을 받은 사실이 이를 단적으로 보여주고 있다.
따라서 민선5기 지자체의 핵심 과제 중 하나는 토건삽질 행정을 끝내는 일이다. 무분별한 토건삽질 행정을 끝내고 문화, 교육, 복지 인프라 구축에 제대로 돈을 쓰지 않으면 시민들의 삶의 질은 올라가지 않는다.
다만, ‘유사 상품’으로 시민들의 눈을 속이려 해서는 안 된다. 예를 들어, 서울시의 경우 ‘문화시정’이라는 이름 아래 설계비만 수백억원을 들여 동대문디자인파크를 짓고 한강예술섬을 띄우고 홍대 앞을 정비한다고 했다. 하지만 이들 사업은 문화라는 이름으로 포장한 토건사업일 뿐이다. 시민들의 문화 향수 기회를 확대하기보다는 건설업체들 배 불리는데 주로 돈이 가는 사업들이다. 오세훈 서울시장을 비롯한 전국 각 지자체장들의 초심과 환골탈태를 기대해 본다.
트위터를 하시는 분들은 http://twitter.com/kennedian3로 저를 팔로우해주시면 감사하겠습니다. 트위터를 지난해 하반기부터 개설했지만 본격적으로 사용하기 시작한 것은 지난 주부터입니다. 향후 제가 아고라와 제 블로그(다음뷰), 오마이뉴스, 네이버 부동산, 한겨레신문 등에 연재하는 글뿐만 아니라 각종 언론 인터뷰 등을 통합해서 매일 소개할 생각입니다. 참고바랍니다.
모든 사람이 땀흘린만큼 제대로 대접받는 건전한 민주주의 시장경제 건설을 위한 좀더 의미 있는 토론과 참여를 원하시는 분들은 김광수경제연구소포럼(http://cafe.daum.net/kseriforum)을 방문해주십시오.
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국민에 대한 최소한의 예의가 있다면 기존처럼 하지는 못할 거라 생각됩니다.
좋은 내용 감사합니다.
눈가리고 아웅하거나 감언이설로 시민들 농락해서 계속 진행 할 가능성이 매우 농후 합니다. 문제는 점점 시간이 지나면 시민들도 별 관심이 없고, 고지서 나와야 잠깐 성 낸다는 거죠.
확실히 투명하게 운영이 되도록 모든 정보를 공유하고 항시 시민들이 볼수 있도록 하는 시스템 구축이 현재 최선이 아닐까 합니다.
물론 오세훈이 할 가능성은 몇 %인지 모르겠지만요..
제가 있는 고양시의 시장은 이번에 바뀌었는데, 쓸데 없는 지출 줄기를 기대해 봅니다. 야당 통합 단일 후보라고 하는데, 지들식구 챙겨줄게 더 많은 사람 아니길..
현재 지방재정 악화의 가장 큰 원인은 참여정부의 지방민심, 서민 포퓰리즘 정책으로 본다.
지방채 발행을 별다른 중앙 통제 없이 지방의회와 지자체장 권한으로 마구 남발할 수 있게 봉인(?)을 풀어준 장본인이 누구인가. 지방자치만 하면 어느날 갑자기 지방도 강남이 될 것같은 허황된 꿈을 심어주며, 갑자기 확대된 지방자치권의 부작용은 전혀 고려되지 않은 전형적인 지방민심 포푤리즘 정책이다.
물론 그동안 과도했던 중앙 통제는 인정한다. 또한 장기적으로 지방 그 자체의 특색을 살린 자치권 확대에는 동의한다. 하지만 문제는 고양이에게 생선 창고 열쇠를 너무 한 번에 넘겨주었다.
이번 지방 선거에서 민주당 출신 단체장들이 대거 자리를 차지했다. 하지만 이들이 현재 지방재정악화를 염려해서 앞으로 단체 지출을 대거 줄이고 세율을 높일 것이라고 전혀 생각지 않는다. 어떻게 되찾은 권력과 민심인데 정직한(?) 운영으로 다시 시민의 심판을 받고 싶지 않을 것이다. 이미 시민들은 한나라당 출신 단체장의 씀씀이에 익숙해져서 새로운 단체장의 단체 지출이 조금만 줄더라도 심한 실망감과 불평을 토로할 것이다. 민중은 원래 그렇다.
결국 어디 출신의 누가 운영하느냐의 문제 이전에 더 근본적인 문제는 적절히 견제되지 않은 무분별한 포퓰리즘식 권력 이양이다.
인간에게 자유가 중요한 반면에 지나치면 방종이다.
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