현 정부 출범 후 3년간 아시아 유럽 북미 등 주요 경제국 중 한국의 환율상승률(통화가치 하락률)과 물가상승률이 모두 최고 수준인 것으로 나타났다는 언론 보도가 나왔다. 왜 이런 상황이 빚어지고 있을까.
‘기획재정부 남대문 출장소’로 전락한 한은이 2010년 하반기 이후 물가상승 압력이 가파르게 상승하고 있음에도 불구하고 기준금리 인상을 꺼리는 것은 GDP성장률로 드러나는 외형적 경제성장률에 대한 집착증과 부동산 버블 붕괴에 대한 우려 때문으로 보인다. 하지만 한편으로는 급격히 증가한 정부 채무에 대한 이자 부담도 적잖이 작용하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 현 정부가 출범한 2008년 이후 정부 공식 채무만 100조원 이상 증가했고, 공적 부문 전체로는 450조원 가량 증가했다. 당연히 기준금리 인상은 폭증한 국가채무와 공기업들의 각종 이자부담 증가로 반영된다. 기준금리 인상으로 국공채 금리가 1% 포인트 상승하게 될 경우 국공채 이자와 금융 부채 이자 부담이 2008년 이전에 비해 1년에 4.5조원이나 증가하는 꼴이기 때문이다. 당장은 아니지만 일본처럼 매년 일반회계 예산의 약 4분의 1 가량을 국채 이자로 지출하게 되는 상황을 먼 나라 얘기로만 생각할 수 없는 것이다.
따라서 정부로서는 최대한 기준금리를 낮춰 국공채 금리를 낮춰 이자부담을 줄이려는 유인을 가지게 될 수밖에 없다. 실제로 일본 정부가 버블 붕괴후 10여 년 간 사실상 제로금리 상태를 유지하는 이유 가운데 하나도 바로 국채 이자 부담 때문이라고 할 수 있다. 더구나 글로벌 금융위기 이후 남유럽의 재정위기가 계속 진행되고 있는 점도 정부로서는 의식하지 않을 수 없을 것이다. 따라서 이런 점을 감안하여 저금리 기조를 계속 유지하려 하고 있는 것일 수도 있다.
실제로 2010년 하반기 이후 고물가 추세가 이어지는 가운데도 현 정부는 5% 성장 목표를 고수하겠다는 의사를 거듭 밝히고 있다. ‘3% 물가’를 립서비스처럼 달고 있지만, 저금리-고물가-고환율 기조를 가능한 한 유지하겠다는 속내가 뻔히 보인다.
그런데 이 같은 ‘3단 콤보’ 기조는 매우 심각한 경제 형평성 문제를 안고 있다. 우선 현실의 시장 리스크 수준을 반영하지 않는 인위적인 저금리 기조를 생각해보자. 저금리의 장기화는 성실한 예금생활자에게 세금을 물려 빚을 지고 투기에 가담했던 가계나 민간기업, 그리고 2009년 이후 약 410조원의 부채를 끌어 쓴 정부공공부문에 보조금을 주는 셈이다. 따라서 이를 일반 가계 입장에서는 ‘저금리 세금’이라고 부를 수 있을 것이다.
고물가 상황은 어떤가. 여러 이유가 있지만 경기 부양 명목의 유동성 증가와 저금리의 지속 등으로 물가 상승세가 지속되고 있다. 그런데 현 정부로서는 물가 상승을 방조하려는 유혹에 강하게 노출돼 있다. 물가가 상승하면 상대적으로 화폐 가치가 떨어지게 되는데 이는 정부 공공부문 부채가 실질적으로 줄어드는 효과로 이어지기 때문이다. 반면 일반가계 입장에서는 실질소득이 줄어드는 정반대 효과가 발생한다. 물가가 오르는 만큼 일반 가계의 소득에 세금을 부과하는 효과를 내는 셈인데, 이를 인플레이션 조세라고 한다. 이를 ‘고물가 세금’이라고 바꿔 부를 수 있을 것이다.
이른바 환율효과 또한 대다수 국민에게는 세금을 부과하는 효과를 낸다. 2009년 경제위기 이후 경제성장의 상당부분은 급격한 수출 성장에 의존하고 있다. 수출이 급성장한 결정적 요인 중 하나는 원-달러 환율이 급등한 덕분이 크다. 실제로 2010년 수출 대기업들이 올린 사상 최대 실적의 상당부분은 환율효과에 따른 것으로 추정된다. 반면 수입업자나 외국 원자재를 쓰는 중소 납품업체는 정반대로 경제위기 전보다 훨씬 더 비싼 원화 가격으로 원자재를 수입해야 한다. 이것이 수입 인플레이션의 형태로 소비자물가에도 전가되므로 소비자들도 상대적으로 더 높은 물가 부담을 져야 한다. 국민들의 대외 구매력도 크게 떨어지게 된다. 이렇게 보면 인위적인 고환율 유도 정책은 일반 가계와 수입업자 등에 세금을 부과하고 수출대기업에 막대한 수출 보조금을 지급해주는 꼴이다. 이를 ‘고환율 세금’이라고 할 수 있다.
그런데 현 정부는 저금리-고물가-고환율 조합을 상당히 의도적으로 오래 유지하고 있다. 이 같은 기조는 고물가와 양극화를 초래하는 등 경제의 질적 측면을 희생해 경제의 외형만 키우는 꼴이다. 또 부동산 거품을 부양하며 일반 가계와 성실한 근로소득자에 불이익을 주는 반면 재벌대기업과 부동산 투기 가계에 보상하는 구조라는 공통점을 갖고 있다. 단순화하자면 없는 사람들에게 뜯어서 있는 사람들에게 막대한 규모의 소득을 재분배해주고 있는 셈이다.
사실 이 같은 ‘세금 아닌 세금’들은 국민 동의 없이 막대한 소득을 없는 자들로부터 가진자들에게 이전한다는 점에서 매우 악성 세금이라고 할 수 있다. 이런 이유들 때문에 지난해 경제성장률이 6.1%에 이르는데도 일반 가계의 체감경기는 거의 개선되지 않고 있다. 현 정부는 이런 기조가 경기회복의 지속을 위해 불가피하다는 핑계를 대고 있다. 하지만 경기회복속도나 유동성 증가 추세에 비해 기준금리가 지나치게 낮다는 점, 부동산 거품을 거의 해소하지 못한 가운데 다른 국가들에 비해 물가상승률이 상당히 높다는 점, 경제위기 이후 대달러 환율이 강세를 띤 대부분 국가들에 비해 한국 원화만 유독 달러 대비 약세를 보였다는 점 등을 고려하면 납득하기 어렵다.
더구나 한국경제는 긴박한 경제위기 국면을 벗어난 지 오래다. 이런 상황에서 언제까지 일반가계의 부를 가진자들에게 퍼줄 것인가. 한국에 정말 ‘망국적 복지’가 있다면 이처럼 각종 정책적, 제도적 지원을 통한 가진자들에 대한 퍼주기 복지일 것이다.
이 같은 우회적인 세금을 통한 소득 재분배 효과가 얼마나 큰지 저금리 정책의 효과를 예로 들어 살펴보자. 주지하는 바와 같이 2008년 후반에 미국발 글로벌 금융위기가 발생하면서 한국은행은 5.5%이던 기준금리를 2.0%로 인하해 경기를 부양해왔다. 이어 2010년 하반기 이후 세 차례 기준금리를 인상해 2011년 2월 현재 2.75%까지 기준금리가 상승했으나 여전히 역대 사상 최저 수준의 기준금리인 것은 물론이다.
2008년 말 이후 저금리정책이 일반 가계들에는 어떤 영향을 미쳤을까? 언론에서는 주택담보대출자 등 주로 부채를 진 가계의 이자 부담에만 초점을 맞추고 있지만, 실제로는 은행에 여유자금을 저축하고 있는 가계들도 많다. 물론 현실에서는 양쪽의 비중이 다를 뿐 금융자산과 부채를 함께 가진 가계들이 많다는 점을 감안해야 한다. 하지만, 설명의 편의상 부채 가계와 예금 가계를 이분법적으로 구분해서 기준금리가 2%를 유지하고 있을 때 그 효과를 따져보았다.
우선, 은행에 빚을 진 가계는 연환산 12.2조원 가량의 금리인하(보조금) 혜택을 받은 것으로 추산됐다. 마찬가지로 2008년 말의 가계 저축성예금을 기준으로 저금리 정책의 기회손실을 계산해보면, 은행에 예금을 한 가계는 저금리 정책으로 연환산 10.5조원 가량의 이자 손실을 본 셈이 된다. 이러한 기회이득 또는 기회손실은 저금리 정책이 길어질수록 확대되게 된다.
결국 정부 정책실패나 금융기관의 무모한 경영으로 인한 잘못을 저금리정책이라는 이름으로 포장하여 예금자인 가계에게 떠넘기고 있는 것이다. 또한 성실하게 일해 번 소득을 저축해온 가계를 희생양으로 하여 빚을 내 부동산투기에 가담한 가계에게 막대한 보조금을 주고 있다. 경제적 형평성 측면에서 심각한 문제가 있는 이 같은 퍼주기를 언제까지 더 지속해야 하는가.
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